The Super Eagles open AFCON 2027 qualifying against Madagascar in Uyo without Victor Osimhen. Here’s our Nigeria vs Madagascar prediction and betting angles.
Full time: Nigeria won 2-1, with debutants George Ilenikhena and Moses Usor scoring after Madagascar led early. Read our Nigeria 2-1 Madagascar match report, then our Guinea-Bissau vs Nigeria prediction for Tuesday.
Updated on the morning of the match, Friday 25 September, with Eric Chelle’s pre-match comments and the latest on Maduka Okoye.
It’s match day in Uyo. Our Nigeria vs Madagascar prediction weighs up a home side missing its main striker against a Barea team that rarely rolls over. Below you’ll find kick-off details, team news, the key battles and our hedged betting angles for the Super Eagles’ AFCON 2027 qualifying opener.
Nigeria host Madagascar at 5pm Nigerian time on Friday, 25 September 2026, in Uyo.
Those details come from Blueprint’s match build-up. For the full background on the group, our earlier Nigeria vs Madagascar preview covers the fixture in depth.
Group L has an unusual shape. Tanzania are in it, but they’ve already qualified as co-hosts alongside Kenya and Uganda. As a result, only one of Nigeria, Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau will reach the finals.
That makes every home point precious. In fact, a slip in Uyo would hand Madagascar a real edge before Nigeria travel to Bissau on 29 September.
The big absence is Victor Osimhen. He picked up a thigh strain for Galatasaray on 20 September and was ruled out of both September qualifiers. Taiwo Awoniyi was called up as his replacement.
Otherwise, Eric Chelle has a near-full group. On Wednesday, 23 September, 23 of the 24 players trained at the Godswill Akpabio International Stadium, including captain Wilfred Ndidi, Ademola Lookman, Alex Iwobi, Calvin Bassey, Ola Aina and Samuel Chukwueze. The first wave had reached Uyo a day earlier, as AfricaTopSports reported. The only absentee was goalkeeper Maduka Okoye, and he was still missing on the eve of the game. At Thursday’s pre-match press conference, Chelle said: “The goalkeeper is not here. His club asked me to allow him do some club-related activities and I agreed. Now, I have to manage the situation,” as AfricaTopSports reported.
In goal, Stanley Nwabali and Arthur Okonkwo both trained on Wednesday, so Chelle still has two senior goalkeepers to choose from if Okoye plays no part. You can see every name on our Super Eagles squad page and in our 24-man squad breakdown. For every Nigeria date this autumn, check our Super Eagles fixtures page.
Up front, Akor Adams looks the likeliest to lead the line. His hold-up play and movement make him the natural replacement for Osimhen’s runs in behind. Awoniyi, Tolu Arokodare and George Ilenikhena offer alternatives.
Chelle wants a fast start. Speaking to the Nigeria Football Federation before the game, he said: “We have to show everyone from Day One that we want it, and the only way to do that is to go for it with our hearts and refuse to slow down,” AfricaTopSports reported. In other words, expect Nigeria to take the game to Madagascar from the first whistle.
Nigeria have won three of the five meetings between the sides, including back-to-back 2-0 wins in qualifying in 2010 and 2011. However, Madagascar won the most recent competitive meeting, beating Nigeria 2-0 in the group stage of AFCON 2019 in Egypt. That result is the reason nobody in the Super Eagles camp is taking the Barea lightly.
Madagascar won’t be tourists. The Barea reached the AFCON quarter-finals on their debut in 2019 and more recently reached the African Nations Championship final. Coach Corentin Martins has had his squad in Uyo since Monday. For the players to watch, see our Madagascar squad guide.
Expect a compact, patient approach. On the road against a bigger nation, Madagascar will likely sit deep, stay organised and look to counter. That said, they need a result too, because this group only rewards one of the three.
Home advantage, squad depth and quality in wide areas all point towards Nigeria. However, Osimhen’s absence removes Nigeria’s most reliable goal source, and Madagascar are well drilled enough to frustrate. So we favour a Nigeria win, but not a rout.
As always, these are editorial opinions based on form and team news. Nothing in football is certain, and Madagascar have caught bigger sides out before.
If you’re backing Nigeria, use an NLRC-licensed or internationally reputable bookmaker. Our bookmaker reviews hub compares odds and payout speed for Nigerian punters. For a quick shortlist, start with our top betting sites in Nigeria list. For picks on every other match, see our football betting tips for today. We may earn a commission if you sign up through our links, but this never affects our opinion.
Looking ahead, our Nigeria vs Guinea-Bissau preview covers the second match of the window on 29 September.
Kick-off is 5pm Nigerian time (4pm GMT) on Friday, 25 September 2026, in Uyo.
No. Victor Osimhen is injured and will miss both September qualifiers. Taiwo Awoniyi replaced him in the squad.
It’s unlikely. Eric Chelle said on Thursday that Okoye was not in camp after his club asked for him to attend to club matters. Stanley Nwabali and Arthur Okonkwo are the other goalkeepers in the squad.
We favour a Nigeria win, most likely by a narrow margin, with under 3.5 total goals.
Tanzania qualify automatically as co-hosts, so only one of Nigeria, Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau will join them at AFCON 2027.
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