The knockout rounds get serious today. Morocco face host nation Canada in Houston, then France take on Paraguay in Philadelphia — here are our picks for both.
The Round of 32 is done, and our World Cup 2026 Round of 16 predictions start today with two heavyweight ties. Morocco, the last African side standing alongside Egypt, meet host nation Canada at NRG Stadium in Houston at 18:00 WAT. Later, France — arguably the most fearsome team left in the draw — face Paraguay in Philadelphia at 22:00 WAT.
For Nigerian fans still hurting from Ghana’s exit at the hands of Colombia in the early hours of this morning, today is about getting behind Morocco. The Atlas Lions knocked out the Netherlands on penalties and now stand one win from a second consecutive quarter-final run. Below we break down both matches, the key markets, and the approximate Bet9ja, SportyBet and BetKing odds.
Kick-off: 18:00 WAT, Saturday July 4 | Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston (indoor, roof closed)
Canada have been one of the stories of the tournament. The co-hosts had never won a World Cup knockout match before this year, yet they have outscored their four opponents 9-3 and beat South Africa 1-0 in the Round of 32. Jonathan David has carried the attack, while Alphonso Davies gives them genuine pace on the left. The home crowd has lifted them in every game so far.
Morocco arrive by a harder road. They finished second in Group C behind Brazil with seven points — two wins and a draw against the Seleção — then survived a penalty shootout against the Netherlands after a 1-1 draw in regulation. This is a side built on defensive structure, set-piece threat and the leadership of Achraf Hakimi, and they reached the semi-finals in 2022. They know exactly how to win these tight knockout games.
One tactical note: with the Houston roof closed, the brutal heat that has shaped so many afternoon games at this tournament will not be a factor. That suits Morocco’s controlled, patient style.
The bookmakers make Morocco favourites, but not by much. Bet9ja price Morocco around 1.85 to win in 90 minutes, with the draw at 3.25 and Canada at 4.60. SportyBet have Morocco to qualify for the quarter-finals at roughly 1.40.
Our lean is Morocco — but with caution. Canada’s front line is quicker than anything Morocco faced in the group stage, and host nations traditionally overperform at World Cups. The smarter play is Morocco to Qualify at 1.40 rather than the 90-minute win, covering the very real possibility of extra time. Morocco have kept things tight all tournament, and Canada’s 9 goals came in bursts against weaker defences.
For a second market, Under 2.5 Goals at around 1.65 looks strong value. Morocco’s matches rarely turn into shootouts, and knockout football tightens everyone up. We fancy a 1-0 or 2-1 Morocco win, quite possibly needing more than 90 minutes.
Kick-off: 22:00 WAT, Saturday July 4 | Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
France have looked like champions-in-waiting. Kylian Mbappé is in devastating form, having powered Les Bleus to top spot in Group I before a dominant 3-0 dismantling of Sweden in the Round of 32. The squad depth is frightening — Didier Deschamps can rotate his entire front line without a visible drop in quality.
Paraguay deserve enormous credit for getting this far. They eliminated Germany on penalties in one of the shocks of the Round of 32, defending with discipline and hitting on the break. But there is a difference between frustrating Germany for 120 minutes and living with France’s pace for 90. La Albirroja have scored sparingly all tournament and will once again park deep and pray.
The odds tell the story: Bet9ja have France at around 1.22, the draw at 6.00 and Paraguay at 11.00 — the shortest knockout-stage price of the tournament so far, per the pricing across Nigerian bookmakers.
At 1.22 France are an accumulator anchor rather than a single. For a standalone bet, Kylian Mbappé to Score Anytime at around 1.60 on BetKing offers better value — he is the focal point of every French attack and takes penalties. The more aggressive play is France -1 on the handicap at roughly 1.75: if Paraguay’s resistance breaks once, it tends to break twice, as Sweden discovered.
The form suggests France win comfortably. We fancy 2-0 or 3-0, with Mbappé on the scoresheet.
Ghana’s 1-0 defeat to Colombia overnight — Jhon Arias with the only goal — means Africa’s representation is down to two: Morocco today, and Egypt against Argentina on Tuesday. If you want the full background on the Atlas Lions’ squad, route to this stage and remaining fixtures, read our Morocco World Cup 2026 squad and fixtures guide.
Full match centre details, line-ups and official stats for both games are on FIFA.com, with live text coverage at BBC Sport. Before you stake, compare today’s prices across our list of the best betting sites in Nigeria — the Morocco and France odds vary noticeably between Bet9ja, SportyBet and BetKing today.
Two matches, two live African storylines, and a possible statement performance from the tournament favourites. Enjoy the football — and only ever stake what you can afford to lose.
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